Ten years after the launch of the U.S.-led mission against the Islamic State (ISIS), NATO allies met in Brussels on Thursday to discuss the future of the coalition. The mission now faces new challenges as military presence in key regions is being diminished. U.S. military forces were recently expelled from Niger, Afghanistan remains under Taliban control, and Iraq is pushing for a reduction of U.S. personnel. Despite these setbacks, U.S. officials warn that the threat posed by ISIS is far from over, particularly as it expands in Africa.
U.S. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, who played a significant role in the coalition’s creation, addressed NATO leaders, emphasizing that ISIS still requires global attention. “As we face challenges from China and Russia, we must not lose sight of the evolving ISIS threat,” Austin said. With public focus shifting to conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, Austin’s remarks served as a reminder that ISIS continues to pose a serious danger.
Although the Islamic State’s self-declared caliphate in Iraq and Syria was dismantled years ago, the group has remained resilient. It has carried out high-profile attacks, such as the deadly assault on a Russian concert hall in March and bombings in Iran that killed nearly 100 people earlier this year. ISIS also continues to inspire lone-wolf attacks, such as a thwarted suicide bombing at a Taylor Swift concert in Austria, further demonstrating its ability to adapt and remain dangerous.
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte echoed Austin’s concerns, noting the rise of lone-wolf attacks and the growing use of new technologies by terrorists. He pointed to the Sahel region in Africa, where jihadist groups aligned with ISIS and al Qaeda are causing widespread devastation. “Nearly half of all deaths from terrorism now occur in the Sahel,” Rutte said, stressing the need for international attention on the region.
The Sahel has become a hotbed of extremist violence, with militants killing thousands and displacing millions across Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. As these conflicts fuel migration towards Europe, some EU states are tightening their borders, while anti-immigrant sentiment is rising. U.S. officials have also raised concerns that ISIS is attempting to spread its influence further into coastal West Africa.
A senior U.S. defense official, speaking on condition of anonymity, highlighted the challenges the U.S. faces in countering ISIS’s expansion in Africa. The official warned that ISIS is working to diversify its leadership and combat forces in the region, with the potential to spread southwards into countries like Ghana, Ivory Coast, and Benin. This expansion poses a new set of security challenges for both the U.S. and its allies.
Complicating matters further, the U.S. has been forced to re-evaluate its presence in West Africa after Niger’s junta ordered the withdrawal of nearly 1,000 U.S. military personnel earlier this year. The U.S. is now searching for alternative strategies to contain the threat from ISIS in the region, but the absence of a clear Plan B raises concerns about the coalition’s ability to address rising extremism.
In Iraq, the U.S.-led coalition will end its military mission by September 2025 under an agreement with Baghdad. The reduction in personnel comes as Iraq seeks more traditional security partnerships. While U.S. forces in Iraq are being scaled down, questions remain about the future of operations in Syria, where U.S. troops are still needed to combat ISIS.
As NATO leaders reassess the coalition’s mission, the future of the fight against ISIS remains uncertain. With the terror group’s threat evolving and spreading to new regions, maintaining international cooperation will be critical in preventing a resurgence of ISIS and ensuring global security.
